Onion price forecasting in kolhapur market of western maharashtra using arima technique

The present study is an attempt to forecast the prices of onion at Kolhapur market of Western Maharashtra, as being a primary market the arrivals of Onion were found to be maximum in this market. The time series data on monthly price of onion required for the study was collected from the registers maintained in the Kolhapur APMC from year 2004 to 2013. The ARIMA model forecasted prices revealed an increase in the prices of onion in the future years and also demand for onion. Hence, farmers need to plan the production process in such a way that good price for the produce could be expected. ARIMA model is an extrapolation method that requires only historical time series data on the variable under study. The Box-Jenkins model provides a verified approach for identifying and filtering most appropriate variations for the series being analyzed, for diagnosing the accuracy and the reliability of the models that have been estimated and lastly, for forecasting the price. Similar model was used by AlmemaychuAmera (2002), Punitha (2007) and Jalikatti and Patil (2015) to forecast the prices and arrivals of agricultural commodities and drawn conclusions.

Author: 
Ashwini S. Darekar, Pokharkar, V. G. and Snehal B. Datarkar
Journal Name: 
Int J Inf Res Rev
Volume No: 
03
Issue No: 
12
Year: 
2016
Paper Number: 
1558
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